FAR EAST
Why China is Winning the Economic War
During what was called the “cold war” that ended with the fall of the Communist Totalitarian Regimes in Eastern Europe, one of the major fears was a military conflict between Russia or China and the U.S.
It did not happen. The potential of a military conflict has instead evolved into an economic war.
The U.S. was winning hands down for a long time. It used to be that the U.S. was number one in almost every category: education, technology, standard of living, economic and military strength; and as a moral and ethical leader of the world. It was leading the rest of the world into the future with the demonstrative power of democracy and free markets, for example, new technological breakthroughs in many fields: automation, computers, communications, energy, medicine and space travel, amongst others.
In recent years, a number of countries have surpassed the U.S. in specific areas, including consumer incomes, standard of living, and health care. The true economic powerhouse, however, has been China. Some of the statistics, and the speed with which they have changed, have been startling. Over the last ten years Chinas economy has surged past those of Canada, Spain, Brazil, Italy, France, and Germany, and is expected to pass Japan this year, to become the second largest economy in the world, behind the U.S.
Whether it is categories of manufacturing efficiency, high-speed rail-line technology, nuclear power plant construction, clean air energy technology or education, China is making impressive global inroads, even in areas where the U.S. still has significant dominance. Much of it has to do with Chinas massive population, about which the U.S. can do nothing.
For instance, while U.S. Internet companies dominate global headlines, China now has the worlds largest Internet market as measured by the number of users. Yet Internet use has only penetrated 22 percent of the population versus 75 percent in the U.S. Meanwhile, U.S. Internet giants like Google, Yahoo, eBay, Amazon and FaceBook are experiencing problems trying to transport their dominance into the Chinese market. Part of this are obstacles placed in their way by Chinas government, in support of Chinas state-controlled corporations. The result is Chinese Internet companies like Tencent, and Baidu, cannot help but become world leaders.
Here is a statistic of more importance: U.S. universities should graduate about 150,000 engineering students this year, while Chinese universities will likely graduate more than 500,000. Now that may be an unfair comparison since Chinas population is larger by approximately the same ratio. But that is not the issue. The issue is the degree to which China has moved higher education to the top of its priorities, and the fact that 500,000 new engineers a year will probably come up with more high-tech innovations than 150,000 can. Chinas great leap forward has been going through the same phases that the United States experienced in the turn of the last century as it worked toward becoming the worlds dominant economy.
In the midst of all this, it may be that China is starting to eat Americas lunch, never taking its eyes off the goal; while we squabble among ourselves, paying no attention. Thats unfortunate. As Sam Houston said in the U.S. Senate in 1850, “A nation divided against itself cannot stand.” Yet, for the last 15 years the U.S. has divided itself in increasingly bitter time and energy-consuming political arguments: the morals of President Clinton, whether or not war should be waged to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq, whether the country’s current problems are due to the depth of the economic hole dug during the last administration, or ineptness of the current administration in pulling the economy out of the hole.
Meanwhile, China has instead kept its eye on the goal. It not only is making great economic strides, but on the financial side has become the worlds largest creditor nation, even as the U.S. has become the worlds largest debtor nation, with China holding much of its debt. The U.S. needs to interrupt its angry divisiveness and name-calling long enough to recognize the importance of what is going on. Unfortunately, historically speaking; this does not seem to be happening soon.
Share and Enjoy
China Res-Land: The Big Giant Goes Astray
For the last month and a half, the Chinese giant China Res-Land has been on a very promising road upwards. Exactly at the end of the last month, for some obscure reason, she went off her beaten track and broke her uptrend. In 3 days of trading she lost more than 8%. Quickly the M.A.C.D Histogram made a dive under the zero mark, a clear sell signal. The RSI also shows this with its own sell signal after dipping below 50% to selling territory. This is not however a short-sell yet as she has to pass a strong support at 14.0. But, keep watching this lady, and if she breaks 14.0, the short-sell would then be indicated.
This is way the Chart looks:
Share and Enjoy
NIKKEI 225 Index, On the Way Up
The Nikkei 225 Index, the major index of the Japanese Exchanges is up 0.8% at 9504.51, a little higher than its morning close of 9469.63, down from the intraday high of 9528.01 hit in the afternoon session. Further gains may be limited with short-winded resistance at 9550. This strong upwards sentiment was slightly helped by the Australian markets’ gains and strong Chinese export data, suggesting that worries in Europe haven’t dented the appetite for Chinese goods. The index’ major members went higher, led by oil-related shares such as Inpex, up 3.4%, and JX Holdings, up 1.9%, on higher crude. Technology export industries were up somewhat, including those exporting autos such as Nissan Motors, up 1.5%, rebounding somewhat on higher Euro Dollar-Japanese Yen rate.
The Nikkei has made a major bottom pattern called a double bottom. It has hit a major support line twice and bounced off of it. Check the Daily Chart below. This can show us, as a short-term indicator, that the Japanese Market is going upwards for now. The RSI is showing a low point that indicates good buying position both on the Daily and the Weekly Chart that is shown below it. Also, the Weekly Chart shows a slow but sure upwards moving trend that could possibly pick up momentum. See the Charts below:
This is the way the Daily Chart looks:
This is the way the Weekly Chart looks:
NOTE THAT WEEKLY CLOSINGS DID NOT PENETRATE TREND LINE
Share and Enjoy
Japan’s Upswing May End Soon
Japan’s stock market appears to be at a decisive point, one that will determine whether 3-month up-cycle that has remained in place will continue. Notes, technical indicators are giving bearish signals, with Nikkei having fallen below its 52-week moving average and 100-day advance/decline ratio dipping below 95%, pointing to possibility that Japanese shares could remain weak through September. In Today’s trading, the Nikkei Index dipped down to 9378.23, down below its’ previous inter-day 2010 low. This is a critical technical development to watch as going forward with Japanese equity investment.
New Prime Minister Naoto Kan will be judged depending on whether he can rein in finances and promote economic growth, promises unfulfilled by predecessor Yukio Hatoyama. Both Nikkei and Topix both lost over 7.0% during Hatoyama government. Investors see Kan as advocate for weaker yen, often viewed as positive for Japan’s export-oriented market. It would hardly be surprising if Kan envisioned a scenario in which a weaker yen pushed stock prices higher. But analysts say equity market recovery is unlikely unless Kan implements credible policies to lift the broader economy.
Share and Enjoy
Centennial For Australia
The Centennial Company of Australia is indeed a cause for celebration. Here at last is a really good looking start of an upwards trend. I say so because we can see this proven through some very important technical parameters. First off, the new brown upwards sloping line on the Daily Chart below indicates to us a fresh trend developing. Then, check out the vertical line in blue showing the day that all 3 Volume Weighted Moving Averages crossed each other and lined up in a buying signal; that is, lowest the fastest (13 day), and in the middle the medium range (21 day), and above the longer and slower 34 day VWMA.
The Directional Movement Indicator’s pink line has moved below the blue line recently and convincingly, and it is already below the orange line. This shows us that the DMI is signaling a buy position. In addition, the Price Oscillator is at an extremely low point indicating a relatively low price level as measured over the average price levels in the last 21 days. This provides us with a good entry point at a cheap price relative to this stock and to the time frame. Check out the Daily Chart to see what I mean.
This is the way the Chart looks:
Share and Enjoy
Meet Jiao Yun, a Shanghai Favorite
This company, by all means a Shanghai Stock Exchange big volume market leader, has been on a long term upwards trend for a year and a half. This is shown on the Weekly Chart below. As is seen, the chart shows the equity going down the last week and hitting the brown trendline. On an upswinging stock this usually represents a good buying opportunity.
This is the way the Weekly Chart looks:

The closing Daily Quote was at the weekly (and monthly) upwards trendlines. Because of this and all of the above there is a good chance for this stock to go up soon. And the upside down hyperbolic rate of fall of the daily prices is indicative of a right side up hyperbole of these prices as depicted on the chart below. This remains a daily chart short term investment, especially since fear is greater than greed and now that the greed emotions set in on this equity, the upwards daily-level rise will be with a smaller rate of change upwards.





