Posts Tagged ‘triangular patterns’
Woe Is Me to the Mighty US Dollar!
Yes, I know I’ve said farewell to the Dollar’s Index Futures, the FOREX barometer for the world’s base currency of reference. But my fond farewells were based on the fundamental assumption that this was only a temporary correction until the start of the long term downtrend cycle that awaits it down the road. This is economically speaking, because the world-wide glut of US Dollar Bills that have flooded the entire world in the Bush Administration years; when there was a free for all printing of money to fund wars and bail out financial criminals so they can stay filthy rich and live on an island of their own in the South Pacific instead of doing time in Fort Worth. This has left the US Dollar, as it trades against the world’s currency basket, only a matter of time before all these recovery-hyped upwards trends run dry and the medium range downwards trend resumes. And such may be the case with the latest moves shown on the daily chart below.
The monthly chart, also shown below, shows our extra-long term downtrend as it ends up in a symmetric triangular pattern with a possible break upwards daily, but it looks to me to be only a false break and the montly triangle should continue on it path down soon to meet its upwards sloping lower angle, and then possibly break it.
Update: Please check out my continuation of this article, OOOooops!!, for an in depth look at the actual outcome of the forecasting made here.
This is the way the Monthly Chart looks with its triangular pattern:(may break downwards in the far future)
This is the way the Daily Chart looks showing the possible beginning of the end for the Dollar:
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Techno Mathematical Company: Are My Calculations Correct?
FRom Flag to Flag and then on upwards to a sideways pattern. A symmetric triangle that has an extremely large angle and can be very profitable when it breaks out. It actually has already broken out downwards but still has more than 30% to go before it fulfills its destiny. The RSI has started a downwards movement showing the short sell signal. There is a trendline less than half a way down from the breakout, but the trend is no longer active and the line, though it can still play a role as an s/r line, its effect here is relatively weak and may only delay the inevitable. The chart will show it clearly.
This is the way the Chart looks:
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S&P in a triangular set up
This picture (see chart below) says it all. But first an explanation. what is shown is a symmetric triangle ( > ) with very acute angles. We build it when we see the high and lows start to match up in this pattern. The vertical line at the start of the triangle, which is determined mainly by practice and experience, show us the amount in points that the triangle is valued at, in this case 55 or about 5.5%. At the end, when the break occurs it is to break the boundaries of the triangle either up or downwards for the length equal to the value (price height) of the triangle itself (in this case 55). As you all see on the vertical line in the right hand side the break was as expected. We count the break from the beginning of the green (+) candlestick that break the triangular pattern. In this case the break was almost perfect, hitting the +55 from its’ break almost dead right at 1110.
This is a fine and classic triangle scenario. They happen often, more than any other pattern of Technical Analysis so it is worth looking out for them. Don’t forget, play it safe and buy or sell short on break!
Here is the way the Chart looks:
